In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting using virtual currency. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram remains the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have grown substantially throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being the sole CFTC-authorised prediction market operating in America. It provides access to US-based participants who cannot use Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts relative to Polymarket, and stringent regulatory constraints limit the types of markets that may be offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and engaging with community-driven predictions — yet it does not appeal to those seeking financial returns. The ecosystem includes more than 10,000 user-initiated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates probabilistic estimates contributed by a network of professional forecasters. Whilst no monetary stakes are involved, it excels at enabling participants to establish forecasting credentials and tackle complex international scenarios. The platform is frequently referenced in scholarly work examining forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the established betting exchange model, processing substantial sums across sports and political wagering annually. Strengths include fiat currency settlement, FCA oversight, and robust sports market depth. Limitations encompass 2-5% commission applied to net gains, absence of digital asset markets, and comparatively restricted political market scope relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants in Europe and internationally seeking maximum trading depth and contract selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the digital asset requirements whilst granting full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order book. Start trading on PolyGram →