How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether the US Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at least once during 2026, with emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings also counting toward the total. Despite an 80% crowd-implied probability for "YES", current data shows the Fed has maintained rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% since the final cut in December 2025, with the latest dot plot suggesting only a single cut is likely, potentially late in the year[1]. Historical framing from 2025, when three cuts occurred in September, October, and December, contrasts sharply with the current prudent stance, as nearly 70% of economists now forecast rates will remain static for the rest of 2026[3]. J.P. Morgan Global Research further reinforces this hawkish outlook, projecting no cuts this year and anticipating a rate hike in September 2027 instead[2].

Traders must monitor the Federal Open Market Committee meeting calendar, specifically the upcoming sessions where Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside, as no economist anticipates a cut following the June meeting[3]. Key catalysts include inflation data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing conflict with Iran, which has already shifted market expectations toward a potential rate hike by October[5]. The CME FedWatch tool currently indicates a nearly 100% likelihood that rates will remain unchanged after the next March meeting, underscoring the high barrier to the "YES" outcome[1].

From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under the German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) framework for digital gambling and the US CFTC's reach over derivatives, meaning accessibility is strictly defined by jurisdiction. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision allows traders to participate without identity verification only if their total exposure remains below this threshold, a critical compliance detail for accessing this specific prediction market without triggering full anti-money laundering protocols.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.