Bitcoin price on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT at noon Eastern Time on 27 June 2026, which will determine whether the market resolves to “Yes” or “No”. With a current crowd-implied probability of just 2% for the “Yes” outcome, the market reflects a strong consensus that Bitcoin will not reach the specified threshold by that date.

Historical volatility patterns frame this low probability credibly. In early 2026, Bitcoin fell from a peak of $126,198 in October 2025 to a low of $60,074 in February, oscillating between $65,000 and $73,000 through March before stabilising near $74,000 by June[2][4]. Comparable corrections in 2021 and 2025 saw similar retracements, where prices failed to breach prior highs despite short-term liquidity surges, reinforcing the view that a sudden spike to the implied target is unlikely without a major macro shift[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcements, US Treasury yield movements, and any regulatory developments under Germany’s GlüStV or US CFTC oversight, as these directly impact risk asset valuations[2]. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision enhances accessibility for retail participants in this market, allowing smaller accounts to engage without identity verification, though it does not alter the fundamental price dynamics. Recent analysis notes that while $150,000 is a plausible Q2 target, a jump to $300,000 by June 27 is deemed nearly impossible by experts, aligning with the market’s 2% probability[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.