What price will Bitcoin hit on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the exact price of Bitcoin at the close of trading on 25 June 2026, a figure that will settle whether the contract pays out. With the crowd-implied probability of a specific high-price outcome sitting at just 1%, the market currently expects Bitcoin to remain near its recent levels, which hovered around $60,900 to $62,650 on 24 and 25 June 2026[1][2]. Historical precedents from early 2026 show Bitcoin fluctuating between $60,000 and $73,000 after peaking at $126,198 in October 2025, suggesting that a sudden surge to extreme highs is statistically improbable without a major catalyst[7].

Traders must monitor regulatory announcements from the German GlüStV framework and US CFTC enforcement actions, as these directly influence market accessibility and liquidity. The specific provision allowing "no-KYC up to $1,500" is critical for this market, as it permits retail participants to engage without identity verification, thereby broadening the pool of potential bettors and potentially increasing volatility[3]. Recent reporting from Fortune highlights that Bitcoin is currently down roughly $43,500 from its previous year-high, reinforcing the view that a dramatic price spike by June 25 is unlikely absent new institutional adoption or regulatory shifts[1].

The settlement window ending on 26 June 2026 at 04:00 UTC means the final price will be locked in shortly after the trading day concludes. Any unexpected news regarding tax compliance or KYC mandates could alter the price trajectory, but current technical indicators project a modest increase of only 5% over the next 30 days, reaching approximately $61,733[5]. This steady, low-growth forecast aligns with the 1% probability assigned to high-price outcomes, indicating the market views a significant deviation from the $60,000 range as an outlier event rather than a baseline expectation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.