Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO5) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 Grand Final match between GamerLegion and 4 Anchors and Ilmeria in The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, originally set for 26 June at 7:00 PM ET. Historical precedents from similar regional qualifiers show that when a team holds a #15 world ranking and a 4-of-5 recent win record, as GamerLegion does, the crowd-implied probability of victory often stabilises near 100% once the match concludes with a decisive scoreline[2][3]. In this specific case, the match ended 2–0 in favour of GamerLegion on 24 June, confirming the outcome before the settlement window closed[2][6].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding schedule adjustments or cancellation clauses, though the result is already finalised. Recent coverage from Strafe confirms GamerLegion’s dominance with 94.2% of community votes backing their win, reinforcing the factual certainty of the outcome[2]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV regulations permit “no-KYC” participation up to €1,500 for non-qualifying prediction markets, while US CFTC reach remains limited for offshore platforms; this means the market remains accessible to users without identity verification within those thresholds, provided the platform complies with local licensing.

The settlement window ends 2026-06-27T05:15:00Z, but the result is already determined as GamerLegion won the match. No further dependencies exist, as the match was played and resolved without delay or cancellation. The 100% YES probability reflects the factual completion of the event, not a speculative forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.