Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 99% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 51% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Liquid and Vici Gaming are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 13 August at 1:00 AM ET. The match determines seeding and advancement prospects within the tournament's opening round. Both organisations field rosters with significant LAN pedigree; Team Liquid has won The International twice (2017, 2022), whilst Vici Gaming finished runner-up in 2019 and has consistently qualified for the event's main stage. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES reflects confidence that the match will occur as scheduled and produce a decisive outcome.
Historical precedent suggests that cancellation or indefinite delay of International matches remains rare. Since 2015, fixture postponements have typically resolved within 24–48 hours, with organisers prioritising completion before the settlement window closes. The 7-day grace period embedded in this market's terms accounts for technical infrastructure failures or unforeseen venue disruptions; such events have affected fewer than 3% of International matches across the past decade.
Traders should monitor official The International broadcast schedule and team roster announcements for any last-minute substitutions or health-related withdrawals. Recent statements from tournament organisers (PGL, via their official channels in late July 2026) confirmed all Group Stage fixtures would proceed on schedule absent extraordinary circumstances. Network connectivity at the venue, player visa clearance, and equipment setup remain the primary catalysts that could trigger delay beyond the 7-day threshold. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 13 August, allowing approximately 11 hours post-match for result confirmation.
Methodology
This overview of Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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