Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

The underlying event is the Lower bracket final in The International 2026 North America Closed Qualifier, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria defeated the bug 2–0 in a Best of 3 match originally scheduled for 26 June at 4:00 PM ET[2][7]. With the result already confirmed, the 50% crowd-implied probability reflects the market’s settlement clause for cancelled or tied outcomes, though the match was played and won decisively by 4 Anchors and Ilmeria[2].

Historically, prediction markets on esports qualifiers often settle at 50–50 when matches are delayed beyond seven days or end in ties, but live results override this if a winner is determined before the deadline[1]. Comparable cases from TI14 and TI15 regional qualifiers show that once a match concludes with a clear winner, markets resolve to that outcome regardless of initial crowd bias, provided the settlement window remains open[6].

Traders should monitor official announcements from the tournament organiser regarding result validation and any potential delays in market resolution, especially given the upcoming settlement deadline of 27 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC[2]. Recent coverage from GosuGamers confirms the final score and team rankings, which may influence how quickly the market updates[2]. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, markets offering “no-KYC up to $1,500” enhance accessibility for smaller traders, though this specific market’s outcome is now fixed, limiting further price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.