Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the final closing price of the one-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026. Traders are betting whether that specific price will fall within a defined range, with the current crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome sitting at 0%, suggesting the market expects the price to land outside the target bracket.

Historical precedents show that prediction markets often misprice short-term volatility when anchored to a single resolution point. In June 2026, Bitcoin traded near $72,145 on 1 June but had fallen to approximately $59,635 by 25 June, reflecting a sharp correction from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198[2][3]. This pattern mirrors earlier cycles where markets overreacted to interim dips, assigning near-zero probabilities to outcomes that later materialised as prices rebounded or stabilised within expected ranges.

Key catalysts for traders include the US CFTC’s ongoing scrutiny of crypto derivatives, Germany’s draft GlüStV regulations on gambling and prediction markets, and Binance’s KYC thresholds—particularly the “no-KYC up to $1,500” rule that affects accessibility for smaller participants. Recent Binance data indicates BTC is projected to rise 5% over the next 30 days, potentially reaching $61,733[3]. Traders should monitor CFTC announcements, EU regulatory updates, and Binance’s daily price feeds, as these dependencies directly influence resolution outcomes without constituting legal advice.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.