US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a tentative initial pact signed on 17 June 2026 between the United States and Iran, ending active hostilities and mandating a 60-day window for negotiations on a final nuclear deal. This agreement requires Tehran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium while the US suspends specific sanctions, allowing Iran to export oil freely[1]. Crucially, the deal is framed as a pathway to permanent cessation rather than a final resolution, leaving key nuclear questions regarding enrichment levels and stockpile disposal unresolved[3].

Historically, comparable cases like the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action suggest that initial frameworks often fail to secure a final signed instrument without significant sanctions relief and access to frozen assets[1]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the fragility of these "gentleman’s agreements," which remain unsigned and preliminary despite diplomatic overtures[4]. Traders should note that Iran has explicitly stated it will not accept a deal excluding economic concessions, creating a high dependency on US willingness to lift broader sanctions[3].

Key catalysts include the commencement of technical negotiations scheduled for this Thursday and any announcements regarding the disposal of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile[4]. Investors must watch for US CFTC regulatory reach, which could impact market accessibility, alongside German GlüStV implications for prediction markets operating in the EU. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold means this specific market remains accessible to retail participants without identity verification, provided the platform complies with local anti-money laundering rules, though this does not guarantee legal protection for the trader.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.