Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Islamic Republic of Iran’s institutional continuity following a recent US–Iran peace memorandum that terminated hostilities and lifted the naval blockade on Iranian ports[1][2]. Despite earlier US and Israeli efforts to destabilise the regime through military strikes and leadership assassinations, including the removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, the core structures of the state—such as the Guardian Council and IRGC control under clerical authority—remain intact and actively governing a majority of the population[5][8].

Historically, comparable cases of regime collapse, such as the 1979 Iranian Revolution or the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, required a fundamental dissolution of ruling institutions and a loss of de facto power over the populace, conditions not currently met in Iran[8]. The near-certain trader consensus on “No” reflects this institutional resilience, as the Supreme National Security Council has affirmed the finalisation of the peace deal and continues to direct economic and security policy[2][3].

Traders should monitor upcoming technical-level discussions in Switzerland scheduled for this week, which focus on lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets, alongside any announcements regarding Iran’s nuclear programme negotiations over the next 60 days[1][3]. Recent reports from Critical Threats confirm that Hezbollah has ceased offensive operations in compliance with the ceasefire, reducing immediate regional escalation risks that might otherwise destabilise the regime[1]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define regulatory boundaries, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows traders to access this market without identity verification, provided they remain within that limit.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.