How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the finalized count of commercial vessels—tankers, containers, dry bulk and general cargo—transiting the Strait of Hormuz between 6 and 12 July 2026, as reported by IMF Portwatch. This figure directly reflects whether the fragile US‑Iran mid‑June memorandum, which obliges Washington to lift its naval blockade by 19 July and Tehran to restore commercial flows, has translated into sustained passage or remains hampered by recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes[1].

Historical volatility in the choke point frames the current 82% YES probability: daily passages have swung from lows near 13 to peaks of 55–74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings, compressing weekly aggregates around 150–225 vessels while risk premiums stay elevated[1]. Comparable cases show that even after interim deals, traffic often resumes cautiously, with AIS‑dark transits and insurance costs tempering recovery, as seen when tanker traffic resumed in June 2026 following the US‑Iran text release but remained below pre‑war levels[4][5].

Traders should monitor the 19 July blockade‑lift deadline, any new Iranian Revolutionary Guard advisories, and daily IMF Portwatch finalisations, since data becomes settled once the next day’s point is published[1]. Regulatory access hinges on German GlüStV’s no‑KYC threshold up to €1,500 (roughly $1,500), which permits participation without identity verification, while US CFTC reach remains limited for non‑US residents but may apply to US persons; these frameworks define the market’s accessibility without altering the underlying transit count[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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FAQ

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