Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 21% of global oil supply, remains effectively closed as Iran re-declared the waterway shut in late June 2026, causing commercial traffic to plummet to near zero despite a brief reopening earlier in the month[1][5]. This market bets on whether any finalized daily transit count from IMF Portwatch will reach the listed threshold before June 30, 2026, with the crowd currently implying only a 10% chance of a "Yes" resolution[2][9].

Historically, the strait saw approximately 138 vessels transit daily before the March 2026 hostilities, a figure that has since collapsed to under 10 per day in the post-war period, though a US-Iran deal in March briefly lifted flows to around 20 daily with 172 ships passing since the agreement[2][3][6]. The current 10% probability reflects the volatility of this fragile peace; while 42 vessels crossed on a single Saturday following the deal, Iran’s subsequent reversal and the imposition of strict permit requirements by its Persian Gulf Strait Authority have created a severe bottleneck, with over 150 ships now stranded and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope[3][5].

Traders must monitor Iran’s adherence to the US-Iran ceasefire, the US Treasury’s sanctions relief license valid until August 21, and any new announcements from Iran’s PGSA regarding transit permits, as these are the primary catalysts for a potential traffic surge[3]. Recent data from Kpler shows 55 merchant ships transited on a single Saturday carrying 17 million barrels, yet the strait’s closure remains a prerequisite for any broader ceasefire, with President Trump having declared a naval blockade due to stalled negotiations[3][4]. The market’s accessibility is further shaped by regulatory frameworks: under German GlüStV and US CFTC reach, "no-KYC up to $1,500" allows traders to access this market without identity verification, provided the stake remains below the threshold, though this does not constitute legal advice on compliance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.