Fed Decision in July?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 28–29, 2026 meeting, where policymakers will decide whether to adjust the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, currently set at 3.75% following the June 17 decision to hold rates steady[1][6]. This market resolves to the basis point change in that upper bound versus its pre-meeting level, with any non-25-point adjustment rounded up to the nearest 25.

Historically, the Fed has moved rates in 25-basis-point increments, with the last cut occurring in December 2025 (–0.25%) and no changes since March 2026[4][5]. The current 78% YES crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect a hike, echoing late-2025 sentiment when inflation concerns drove similar bets before a potential Iran deal cooled expectations[4]. Derivatives markets still indicate a near-60% chance of at least one hike by year-end, framing the July probability as part of a broader tightening cycle[4].

Traders should monitor the June 17 FOMC statement for forward guidance, the July 10 CPI release, and any shifts in the Iran deal narrative that could alter inflation trajectories[1][4]. The next key data point is the July 15 employment report, which may sway the committee’s stance on balancing its dual mandate[4]. Recent commentary from Fed members pointing to a potential 2026 hike reinforces the likelihood of action[7]. For accessibility, German GlüStV rules and US CFTC reach apply to this market; the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold means retail participants can trade without identity verification below that limit, though compliance obligations remain for larger positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.