Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for roughly 100 days, a modern operational halt driven by asymmetric Iranian power using drones and missiles that keeps oil prices elevated and global energy deterrence strong [4]. This blockade, which began after Iran’s assaults on vessels following the US-Israeli attack on 28 February, has suspended commercial shipping and stranded over 150 ships, including tankers and bulk carriers [5]. While a brief reopening occurred on 21 April 2026, traffic reverted to near zero the next day, confirming that the strait remains a critical chokepoint where approximately 21% of the world’s oil supply faces risk [5].

Historical precedents for such closures are scarce, yet the current 68% market probability reflects the fragile nature of the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire, which has failed to restore normal commercial transits despite diplomatic efforts [2]. Comparable disruptions in the region, such as the precipitous drop in Suez crossings and the massive spike in Baltic Exchange indices, suggest that routing uncertainty and toll demands by Iranian officials continue to suppress traffic [1][2]. The fact that only six vessels navigated the strait in the last 24 hours of late April, compared to a typical 60 daily, underscores the severity of the current trickle and the difficulty of reaching the 60-ship moving average threshold required for a “Yes” resolution [2].

Traders must monitor the US naval blockade declaration by President Trump, who has stipulated that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran [3]. Key catalysts include potential announcements regarding Iranian toll implementations, which face sanctions risks for non-US entities paying the Revolutionary Guards, and the expiration of war risk insurance cover that may further deter tanker owners [2]. Recent data from the Joint Maritime Information Center confirms that commercial shipping remains restricted with continued routing uncertainties, meaning any shift in the US-Iran deadlock or a successful naval push to clear the strait will be the primary driver for traffic returning to the 60-ship average before July 31 [2].

From a regulatory perspective, this market’s accessibility is shaped by German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, particularly regarding the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold that allows retail participation without full identity verification for smaller stakes. This structure permits traders to engage with the geopolitical risk of Hormuz without triggering stringent anti-money laundering protocols typically required for larger positions, provided the stake remains under the specified limit. The market resolves based on IMF Portwatch data, ensuring that only officially reported transit calls count, which aligns with KYC requirements for data integrity while maintaining the regulatory flexibility for smaller, unverified trades.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.