Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for commercial shipping, with traffic near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 daily transits, following a 100-day operational shutdown triggered by conflict between Iran and the United States [2][3]. This unprecedented blockade has stranded over 150 vessels, spiked war-risk insurance premiums to more than 16 times normal rates, and disrupted approximately 21% of global oil supply [4].

Historically, similar chokepoint closures have resolved only after direct geopolitical concessions; in this case, President Trump has explicitly tied the strait’s reopening to any ceasefire with Tehran, yet negotiations show minimal progress and a naval blockade has been declared [2]. The current 89% crowd-implied probability of a December 31 return to normal traffic appears optimistic given that the strait briefly reopened for just one day on 21 April before closing again, and recent data shows only 25 commercial vessels crossing on 18 June [4][7].

Traders must monitor the US Central Command’s transit announcements, the timing of summer energy demand peaks, and any shifts in Iran’s asymmetric deterrence tactics using drones and missiles [2][3]. A critical catalyst is the potential for Iran to lay mines or impose tolls, which would further suppress the 7-day moving average of arrivals required for the market to resolve to “Yes” [2]. Regulatory accessibility for this market is influenced by German GlüStV provisions allowing no-KYC transactions up to €1,500, while US CFTC reach remains a factor for traders in American jurisdictions, though the market itself does not constitute legal advice.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.