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PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20

"PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20" on Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket Germany Legal — what traders need to know about platform choice, KYC and tax law.

S.Y. Noh 50% Kurt Kitayama 45% Scottie Scheffler 42% Tom Kim 35% Volume: $61K Liquidity: $121K Closes: 26 Jul 2026
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PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
S.Y. Noh50%
Kurt Kitayama45%
Scottie Scheffler42%
Tom Kim35%
Jake Knapp30%
Hideki Matsuyama26%
Maverick McNealy25%
Keith Mitchell20%
Jackson Koivun20%
Corey Conners20%
Ben Kohles19%
Jordan L. Smith18%
Sung-Jae Im18%
Sam Stevens18%
Mac Meissner18%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout18%
Pierceson Coody17%
Jackson Suber17%
Doug Ghim17%
Benjamin James17%
Casey Jarvis17%
Taylor Moore17%
Max Homa16%
Johnny Keefer16%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen16%
Michael Kim16%
Brian Harman16%
Max McGreevy16%
Gary Woodland14%
Tony Finau14%
Michael Brennan14%
Max Greyserman14%
Davis Thompson14%
Ricky Castillo14%
Beau Hossler14%
John Parry14%
Andrew Putnam14%
Denny McCarthy14%
Zac Blair14%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju13%
William Mouw13%
Kevin Yu13%
Mackenzie Hughes13%
Zach Bauchou13%
Keita Nakajima13%
Taylor Pendrith12%
Steven Fisk12%
Emiliano Grillo12%
Rico Hoey12%
Lee Hodges12%
Takumi Kanaya12%
Aldrich Potgieter11%
Lucas Glover11%
Jesper Svensson11%
Seamus Power11%
Austin Smotherman11%
Kristoffer Ventura11%
Tom Hoge11%
Kevin Roy11%
Joel Dahmen11%
Brandt Snedeker11%
Stephan Jaeger10%
Preston Stout10%
Hao-Tong Li10%
Thorbjorn Olesen10%
Billy Horschel10%
Ze-Cheng Dou10%
Matt Kuchar10%
Chris Kirk10%
Austin Eckroat10%
Patrick Fishburn9%
A.J. Ewart9%
Garrick Higgo9%
Chad Ramey9%
David Lipsky9%
Patrick Rodgers8%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart8%
Matthieu Pavon8%
Nick Dunlap8%
Karl Vilips8%
Neal Shipley8%
David Skinns8%
Chandler Phillips8%
Lanto Griffin8%
Erik Van Rooyen7%
Luke Clanton7%
Trace Crowe7%
Aaron Wise7%
Mark Hubbard7%
Adam Hadwin7%
Ryder Cowan6%
Gordon Sargent6%
Pontus Nyholm6%
Hayden Springer6%
Harry Higgs6%
Vince Whaley6%
Luke List5%
Cameron Champ5%
Jimmy Stanger5%
Jason Day0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pga tour: 3m open top 20 stands at 50% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final …

Methodology

This overview of PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
and

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