Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| EC Bahia O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| EC Bahia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 56% |
| EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| EC Bahia O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 28% |
| EC Bahia (-1.5) | 23% |
| EC Bahia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| EC Bahia O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) | 10% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| EC Bahia (-2.5) | 9% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5) | 3% |
Market context
The Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for August 16 at 10:00 AM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia - More Markets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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