Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 87% |
| Toledo O/U 20.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| Toledo O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| O/U 42.5 | 73% |
| O/U 46.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 70% |
| O/U 48.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 44.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| O/U 50.5 | 61% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 60% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 49% |
| Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| O/U 58.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 37% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -12.5 | 34% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 62.5 | 33% |
| O/U 66.5 | 32% |
| O/U 56.5 | 31% |
| O/U 68.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 64.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 70.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
Market context
Market consensus: 93% chance of san diego state vs. toledo. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Toledo, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $764K.
Methodology
This overview of San Diego State vs. Toledo reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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