Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 98% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 95% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 2+ saves | 77% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 64% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 62% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Iñaki Williams: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Iñaki Williams: 4+ shots | 39% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 24% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Jordan Ayew: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to colombia vs. ghana - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Colombia and Ghana, scheduled for July 3 at 9:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Colombia vs. Ghana - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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