Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 43% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
Market context
The England vs. Argentina - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 92% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of England vs. Argentina - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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