Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 61% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Unai Simón: 2+ saves | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Rodri: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 9% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rodri: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rodri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 89% probability to spain vs. austria - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Spain vs. Austria - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Spain vs. Austria - Player Props on Polymarket Germany Legal
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →