Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 73% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Cucurella: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for Spain vs. Belgium - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Belgium, scheduled for July 10 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Spain vs. Belgium - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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