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PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner

"PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner" on Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket Germany Legal — what traders need to know about platform choice, KYC and tax law.

Scottie Scheffler 64% Steven Fisk 10% Viktor Hovland 8% Ludvig Aberg 6% Volume: $126K Liquidity: $1.3M Closes: 16 Aug 2026
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PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
64% 36% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
64% 36% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Scottie Scheffler64%
Steven Fisk10%
Viktor Hovland8%
Ludvig Aberg6%
Sung-Jae Im5%
Tommy Fleetwood4%
Jordan Spieth2%
Cameron Young2%
Akshay Bhatia1%
Jacob Bridgeman1%
Sam Burns1%
Patrick Cantlay1%
Ricky Castillo1%
Bud Cauley1%
Wyndham Clark1%
Eric Cole1%
Corey Conners1%
Nicolas Echavarria1%
Harris English1%
Alex Fitzpatrick1%
Matt Fitzpatrick1%
Rickie Fowler1%
Ryan Fox1%
Ryan Gerard1%
Chris Gotterup1%
Ben Griffin1%
Harry Hall1%
Brian Harman1%
Russell Henley1%
Ryo Hisatsune1%
Nicolai Hojgaard1%
Max Homa1%
Michael Kim1%
Si Woo Kim1%
Tom Kim1%
Kurt Kitayama1%
Jake Knapp1%
Min Woo Lee1%
Shane Lowry1%
Hideki Matsuyama1%
Matt McCarty1%
Rory McIlroy1%
Maverick McNealy1%
Keith Mitchell1%
Collin Morikawa1%
Alexander Noren1%
JT Poston1%
Aaron Rai1%
Kristoffer Reitan1%
Justin Rose1%
Xander Schauffele1%
Matthias Schmid1%
Adam Scott1%
Alex Smalley1%
Jordan L. Smith1%
J.J. Spaun1%
Sam Stevens1%
Sepp Straka1%
Nick Taylor1%
Sahith Theegala1%
Justin Thomas1%
Michael Thorbjornsen1%
Gary Woodland1%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju1%
Pierceson Coody0%
Jackson Koivun0%
Robert MacIntyre0%
Aldrich Potgieter0%
Patrick Rodgers0%
Player 00%
Player 10%
Player 20%
Player 30%
Player 40%
Player 50%
Player 60%
Player 70%
Player 80%
Player 90%
Player 100%
Player 110%
Player 120%
Player 130%
Player 140%
Player 150%
Player 160%
Player 170%
Player 180%
Player 190%
Other0%

Market context

The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship represents the second event of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup playoffs, scheduled for August at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. The tournament operates under standard PGA Tour stroke-play rules, with the winner determined by lowest aggregate score over 72 holes; in the event of a tie, the PGA Tour's playoff procedures apply. A 6% implied probability for any single listed player reflects the field depth typical of FedEx Cup events, where approximately 125 competitors qualify based on season-long points accumulation.

Historical resolution patterns from comparable FedEx Cup playoff events show that favourites rarely exceed 8–12% probability at the outset, given the competitive calibre and variable course conditions. The 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship winner emerged from a field where no pre-tournament favourite held more than 10% implied odds, illustrating how evenly matched elite PGA Tour fields have become. Injury withdrawals and late-season form shifts account for significant probability shifts in the weeks preceding the tournament.

Traders should monitor PGA Tour injury reports and official field confirmations, typically released four weeks before play begins. The FedEx Cup standings reset after the first playoff event, meaning performance at the preceding FedEx St. Jude Championship directly influences field composition for subsequent events. Recent announcements regarding course setup modifications or weather forecasts for August in Memphis warrant attention, as TPC Southwind's bentgrass greens and humidity patterns create measurable performance variance across player profiles.

Methodology

This overview of PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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