Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 78% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 36.5 | 60% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Game Spread +/-0.5 | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner | 45% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 Winner | 45% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 43% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse | 40% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 21% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 78% probability to us open atp: marcos giron vs ignacio buse. This market refers to the tennis match between Marcos Giron and Ignacio Buse in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcos Giron' if …
Methodology
This overview of US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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