Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas | 69% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 Winner | 62% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 21.5 | 55% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 44% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 75% YES probability for Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas. This market refers to the tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Vilius Gaubas in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jesper de Jong' …
Methodology
This overview of Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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