Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 91% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu | 68% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 10% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of phan thiet 3: hiroki moriya vs yuta shimizu. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Hiroki Moriya and Yuta Shimizu in the Phan Thiet 3, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This overview of Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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