Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| USC 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| USC 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| Spread -17.5 | 96% |
| Spread -20.5 | 96% |
| Spread -21.5 | 95% |
| Spread -24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 40.5 | 93% |
| Spread -27.5 | 90% |
| O/U 43.5 | 85% |
| O/U 46.5 | 83% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| O/U 52.5 | 69% |
| O/U 58.5 | 60% |
| Spread -34.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 64.5 | 53% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread: USC (-38.5) | 50% |
| Spread -39.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 78.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| USC O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 48% |
| O/U 76.5 | 48% |
| O/U 62.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 61.5 | 34% |
| O/U 60.5 | 22% |
| San Jose State vs. USC | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 31.5 | 0% |
Market context
The San Jose State vs. USC prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 3:00PM ET: If San Jose State wins, the market will resolve to "San Jose State". If USC wins, the market will resolve to "USC". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $133K.
Methodology
This overview of San Jose State vs. USC reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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