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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

"Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props" on Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket Germany Legal — what traders need to know about platform choice, KYC and tax law.

Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 91% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 88% Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots 77% Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots 70% Volume: $135K Liquidity: $1.1M Closes: 29 Jun 2026
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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
91% 9% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
91% 9% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots91%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots88%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots77%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots70%
Rayan: 1+ shots64%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots61%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots56%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots55%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists54%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots54%
Endrick: 1+ shots54%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots53%
Casemiro: 1+ shots52%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots51%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots50%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists50%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists50%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists49%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target49%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target49%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target49%
Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists49%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target49%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target48%
Casemiro: 2+ shots on target48%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target48%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target48%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target48%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target48%
Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists48%
Rayan: 3+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 2+ saves48%
Alisson: 5+ saves48%
Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves48%
Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves48%
Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves48%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists48%
Endrick: 1+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 2+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 3+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 4+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target48%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target48%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target48%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target48%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target47%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target47%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists47%
Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists47%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots47%
Alisson: 4+ saves47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves47%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists47%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target47%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target47%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target47%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists46%
Rayan: 4+ goals + assists46%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots46%
Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists46%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists46%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots45%
Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists45%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots44%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target42%
Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists41%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals39%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target39%
Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists39%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots39%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists38%
Endrick: 2+ shots37%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists35%
Rayan: 2+ shots34%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots33%
Rayan: 1+ shots on target33%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots33%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots32%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots32%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots30%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals30%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists29%
Rayan: 2+ goals + assists29%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target29%
Alisson: 3+ saves28%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots28%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists27%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots26%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists25%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots25%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots25%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots25%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots24%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists24%
Endrick: 3+ shots24%
Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists24%
Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists23%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists23%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists23%
Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots22%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots22%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists22%
Rayan: 1+ goals + assists21%
Rayan: 3+ goals + assists21%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots21%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists21%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists21%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists21%
Rayan: 3+ shots20%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target20%
Casemiro: 1+ shots on target20%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target20%
Endrick: 4+ shots20%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots20%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots20%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals19%
Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots19%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots19%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists18%
Rayan: 1+ goals18%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists18%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots17%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists17%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists17%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists16%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists16%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots16%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots15%
Rayan: 4+ shots14%
Casemiro: 2+ shots14%
Neymar Jr: 1+ assists14%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots14%
Endrick: 1+ goals14%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals14%
Rayan: 2+ shots on target14%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target14%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target13%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots13%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists13%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots13%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals13%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists13%
Rayan: 3+ goals12%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots12%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots12%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target11%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals11%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals11%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists11%
Rayan: 5+ shots10%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals10%
Rayan: 1+ assists10%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots10%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals10%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals10%
Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists10%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists10%
Endrick: 5+ shots10%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots10%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals9%
Neymar Jr: 2+ assists9%
Rayan: 2+ assists9%
Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots9%
Neymar Jr: 5+ shots9%
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists9%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals9%
Casemiro: 1+ goals8%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals8%
Casemiro: 1+ assists8%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals8%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots8%
Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots8%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target7%
Danilo Santos: 1+ assists7%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals6%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists6%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists6%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals6%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals6%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists5%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists5%
Endrick: 2+ goals5%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals5%
Danilo Santos: 2+ assists5%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists4%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals4%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals3%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists3%
Casemiro: 2+ assists3%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists3%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists3%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists3%
Endrick: 3+ goals3%
Rayan: 2+ goals3%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals2%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists2%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals2%
Raphinha: 3+ goals2%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals2%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals1%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals1%
Casemiro: 2+ goals1%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals1%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 1+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, brazil vs. japan - player props stands at 91% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.

Methodology

This overview of Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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