Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for 30 June at 1:00 PM ET, where player props cover shots, goals, assists and saves. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 25% YES for a specific player outcome, reflecting Norway’s 46.1% win probability and the most likely correct score of 1–1[3].
Historical precedents in similar World Cup knockout games show that when a favoured side like Norway (moneyline +110) faces a resilient underdog like Côte d'Ivoire (+250), player prop markets often cluster around both teams scoring and low individual goal tallies, with the over/under set at 2.5 goals[1][3]. This pattern suggests the 25% YES probability is consistent with a tight, balanced contest where individual standout performances are less likely than collective defensive resilience.
Traders should monitor pre-match squad announcements, particularly whether Erling Haaland starts, as his involvement significantly impacts Norway’s attacking output and player prop liquidity[8]. Additionally, watch for any regulatory updates on German GlüStV compliance or US CFTC reach affecting offshore platforms, as these could alter market accessibility. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold currently enables broader participation for retail traders in this specific market, though future KYC tightening may restrict access[2]. Recent analysis from Action Network reinforces the expectation of both teams scoring, which indirectly supports lower individual goal props for key attackers[1].
Methodology
This overview of Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
Trade Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props on Polymarket Germany Legal
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