Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on June 25 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with the settlement of the prediction market concluding shortly after the game ends[1][2]. This fixture represents the final group-stage opportunity for the US Men’s National Team, a high-stakes context that historically drives volatility in market probabilities for outcomes like total goals or additional match markets[3][4].

Historically, comparable cases in World Cup group stages show that when a team faces a must-win scenario against a defensively resilient opponent, the probability of “more markets” (such as extra time, additional goals, or penalty shootouts) often clusters between 25% and 35%, reflecting the tight margin between decisive and drawn outcomes[4][9]. The current 31% YES probability aligns with this range, suggesting the market views the match as likely to stay within standard parameters, though the US team’s recent form (2 wins in 2 games) introduces a catalyst for potential deviation[4].

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding line-ups, injury updates, and tactical shifts, particularly from official sources like FOX Sports and FIFA, which will broadcast live coverage and provide real-time updates[2][5]. A key dependency is whether either team adopts an aggressive approach in the final 20 minutes, which could trigger additional markets; recent news from Reuters confirms live match tracking will be available, offering immediate data on momentum shifts that could influence settlement[9]. For accessibility, the market’s “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows users to participate without identity verification under German GlüStV regulations, while US CFTC reach remains limited for non-US participants, ensuring broader access for international traders[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.