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MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

"MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Polymarket Germany Legal as a Polymarket alternative.

Team A 50% Team B 50% Team C 50% Team D 50% Volume: $106K Liquidity: $13K Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Team A50%
Team B50%
Team C50%
Team D50%
Team E50%
Other50%
Chicago White Sox37%
Cleveland Guardians37%
Milwaukee Brewers37%
Pittsburgh Pirates37%
Toronto Blue Jays37%
Washington Nationals37%
Arizona Diamondbacks36%
Cincinnati Reds36%
Houston Astros36%
Miami Marlins36%
Seattle Mariners32%
Atlanta Braves31%
Los Angeles Dodgers6%
Colorado Rockies3%
Kansas City Royals3%
Los Angeles Angels3%
New York Yankees3%
Tampa Bay Rays3%
Texas Rangers3%
Boston Red Sox2%
Chicago Cubs2%
Minnesota Twins2%
Philadelphia Phillies2%
Baltimore Orioles1%
Detroit Tigers1%
New York Mets1%
Athletics1%
San Diego Padres1%
St. Louis Cardinals1%
San Francisco Giants0%

Market context

MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) — current market-implied probability: 50%. This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will re…

Methodology

This overview of MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
and

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