Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is an MLB game between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET on 26 June 2026. The Astros, currently 40–43 overall and 20–22 away, defeated the Tigers 2–1 in the first game of this four-game series on 25 June, with the Tigers failing to score in that contest[5][3].

Historical precedents in MLB prediction markets show that when a team wins the opening game of a short series and holds a clear pitching advantage, the crowd-implied probability for that team to win the next game often stabilises above 60%, yet this market sits at 0% YES for the Astros, suggesting either a data anomaly or an unrecorded postponement risk[1][2]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons reveal that similar 0% probabilities typically resolve only after official cancellations are confirmed, not merely due to perceived underperformance[5].

Traders should monitor the official MLB postponement announcements and the starting lineups released by 5:00 p.m. ET on 26 June, as any delay would keep the market open until completion[6]. Recent coverage from CBS Sports confirms the Astros’ second-place standing in the AL West and their 20–22 away record, which may influence lineup decisions if weather deteriorates[5]. Under German GlüStV rules, US CFTC reach, and the “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision, this market remains accessible to non-verified users in Germany, provided the transaction stays below the threshold, enhancing liquidity without identity checks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.