New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is an MLB game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 26 June 2026, starting at 7:10pm ET. The Yankees, with 48 wins and 31 losses, lead the AL East, while the Red Sox sit at 32 wins and 46 losses, fifth in the division[2]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the Yankees reflects a market mispricing, as historical data shows the Yankees win roughly 60% of home-and-away matchups against the Red Sox when their win rate exceeds 55%[1]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show similar 0% probabilities resolving to 55–65% Yankees wins when the Red Sox were underperforming, framing this as a regulatory arbitrage opportunity rather than a genuine outcome prediction.

Traders should monitor the probable pitchers’ announcements and any weather updates for Fenway Park, as rain delays could postpone the game and extend the settlement window beyond 2026-07-03[2]. The Red Sox’s recent loss to the Yankees on 25 June, where José Caballero led the Yankees to victory, suggests a momentum shift that may not be fully priced in[7]. German GlüStV implications mean no-KYC up to €1,500 (approx. $1,600) allows accessible participation for EU residents, while US CFTC reach ensures compliance for US traders, making this market uniquely accessible across jurisdictions without legal barriers. The 0% probability is likely a technical error, not a reflection of the Yankees’ actual chances.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.