Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Major League Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets, played on 26 June 2026 at Citi Field in Flushing, New York, which concluded with the Phillies winning the match[1][2]. This outcome aligns with the market’s current 100% YES probability for the Phillies, reflecting the definitive nature of the result rather than a speculative forecast.

Historical precedents in MLB prediction markets show that once a game is completed and the final score is officially recorded, markets resolve immediately with no ambiguity, as seen in similar 2025 matchups where resolved probabilities hit 100% post-game[5][6]. Comparable cases confirm that postponed games extend the settlement window, but cancellations or ties trigger a 50-50 split, a clause rarely invoked given MLB’s robust scheduling protocols.

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding player injuries or weather disruptions ahead of future fixtures, though none apply to this resolved game[8]. Recent coverage from The Athletic confirms the final box score and key plays, including Trea Turner’s single and Derek Hill’s defensive highlight, which solidified the Phillies’ victory[5][7]. For accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit “no-KYC up to $1,500” for low-risk sports markets, allowing immediate participation without identity verification, provided the trader remains within the threshold and the market is classified as non-regulated entertainment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.