Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets scheduled for 4:10PM ET on June 27, where the Phillies hold a 41-35 record against the Mets’ 34-42 standing in the NL East. The crowd-implied 19% probability for a Phillies win reflects their recent dominance, including a 2-1 victory the previous day and a 15-3 rout on June 20 featuring Bryce Harper’s cycle[2][4]. Historical comparables show that when the Phillies break losing streaks at Citi Field, as they did by ending a ten-game slump on June 26, their win probability often surges despite being the underdog in odds[3].

Traders should monitor pitching matchups, specifically Zack Wheeler’s solid seven-inning performance in the last meeting and Freddy Peralta’s 3.12 ERA in eight career outings versus the Phillies[4][6]. Key catalysts include bullpen depth, offensive momentum from Philadelphia’s power hitters, and New York’s roster adjustments amid extended injured-list placements[2]. Recent news confirms the Mets’ manager Carlos Mendoza was fired and replaced by Green hours before the Phillies’ latest win, adding volatility to team stability[4]. Regulatory accessibility is shaped by German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, where the ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ threshold allows immediate participation without identity verification for this specific market, enhancing liquidity for retail traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.