Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians, played on Friday, 26 June 2026 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, which the Mariners won 3–1 after Emerson’s seventh-inning homer and Crawford’s go-ahead single[1][2]. This result confirms the market’s 100% YES settlement for “Seattle Mariners” as the game has been completed with no tie or cancellation.

Historical precedents for similar MLB prediction markets show that once a game is officially finished and the final score is recorded by the league, markets resolve immediately without delay, mirroring past cases where 100% probabilities were validated post-game[1][3]. Comparable outcomes from the 2025 and early 2026 seasons demonstrate that crowd-implied 100% probabilities in completed games are consistently upheld, reinforcing the reliability of this settlement.

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics page for any post-game corrections, though no such adjustments are expected given the clear 3–1 result[1][4]. The next dependency is the series schedule, as the Mariners and Guardians are tied 2–2 in their current series, with the next game scheduled for 27 June[6]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the final score and player performances, providing the primary resolution source for this market[1]. Regarding accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit “no-KYC up to $1,500” for low-risk sports markets, allowing immediate participation without identity verification for this settled outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.