Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| St Johnstone FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Kilmarnock FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| St Johnstone FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kilmarnock FC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| St Johnstone FC (-1.5) | 44% |
| St Johnstone FC (-2.5) | 25% |
| Kilmarnock FC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Kilmarnock FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| St Johnstone FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Kilmarnock FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
St Johnstone and Kilmarnock are due to meet in the Scottish Premiership, and this “more markets” contract is effectively a wager on whether the book will add any further listed markets before the settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC. The current 44% crowd-implied YES price sits below an even split, which is consistent with a market that is possible but not yet confirmed by the fixture context or the exchange rules.
For framing, the head-to-head data do not point to a one-sided fixture: recent meetings have been mixed, with Kilmarnock winning the last league meeting 2-0 in May 2025 and St Johnstone winning 1-0 at home earlier that season; broader H2H records are close overall, with both sides taking roughly similar numbers of wins across the rivalry.[14][5][19] That sort of balance usually matters less than operational details in a “more markets” contract, because the trigger is the availability of extra sub-markets rather than the final result itself.
Traders should watch for the match being fully populated in the event feed, late team news, and any schedule or suspension changes that might alter the menu of available derivatives before kick-off. Under German GlüStV rules, the key issue is whether the activity is treated as a regulated gambling product with licensing, advertising and consumer-protection constraints; in the US, CFTC reach matters because event-contract enforcement can turn on whether the market is viewed as a swaps-like binary or an impermissible sports wager. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user can usually access the market without full identity verification until cumulative activity hits that threshold, but it does not remove platform, jurisdictional or sanctions screening requirements.
Methodology
This overview of St Johnstone FC vs. Kilmarnock FC - More Markets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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