Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 58% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 48% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 47% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 46% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 43% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 43% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 42% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 38% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 38% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 35% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 32% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 31% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 29% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 28% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 26% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 25% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 21% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 19% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 19% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 18% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 17% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 15% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 15% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 15% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 14% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 14% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 13% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 13% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 12% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 11% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 11% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 10% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 9% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 8% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 8% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 7% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 6% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 5% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 5% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 1% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 1% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of falcons vs. packers - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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