Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 85% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 80% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 80% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 79% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 77% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 76% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 74% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 70% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| Justin Jefferson: Anytime Touchdown | 67% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 66% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 66% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 64% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 63% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 62% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 59% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 57% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 55% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 54% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| James Cook III: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 51% |
| Khalil Shakir: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Longest Reception O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Khalil Shakir: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ben Yurosek: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Gavin Bartholomew: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Hawes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Myles Price: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ray Davis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tai Felton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Ben Yurosek: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Gavin Bartholomew: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jackson Hawes: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Myles Price: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Ray Davis: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Ty Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ty Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Ty Johnson: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Myles Price: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| DeeJay Dallas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DeeJay Dallas: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Ben Yurosek: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Greg Dortch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keleki Latu: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trent Sherfield: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Greg Dortch: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Keleki Latu: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Trent Sherfield: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 49% |
| Josh Allen: Anytime Touchdown | 49% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 48% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 43% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| James Cook III: Anytime Touchdown | 43% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 37% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 36% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 36% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 36% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 32% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 32% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 31% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 31% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 30% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 30% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 30% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 30% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 27% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 24% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 24% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| Keon Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 24% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Anytime Touchdown | 24% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 23% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 23% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 23% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 23% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 22% |
| DJ Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 21% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 21% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 20% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Josh Allen: 2+ Touchdowns | 20% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 19% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 19% |
| Jordan Mason: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Khalil Shakir: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 18% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 17% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 17% |
| James Cook III: 2+ Touchdowns | 17% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 16% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 15% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 11% |
| DJ Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 11% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| Keon Coleman: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| Khalil Shakir: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| T.J. Hockenson: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
Market context
Bills vs. Vikings - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 85%. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Bills vs. Vikings - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Germany Legal stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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