Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Germany Legal) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 60% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 55% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 52% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 46% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 46% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 9% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The England vs. DR Congo - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 91% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of England vs. DR Congo - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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