What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran have signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding to end the Gulf conflict, with the core real-world dispute now centred on whether the final agreement will permit Iran to continue enriching uranium. Vice President JD Vance has explicitly stated that the definitive deal will bar uranium enrichment, destroy Tehran’s enriched stockpiles, and cap missile ranges, directly contradicting the market’s 100% “Yes” probability that the US will accept continued enrichment[1].

Historically, comparable nuclear frameworks such as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action required Iran to cap enrichment at 3.67% and ship out 96% of its stockpile, effectively halting high-level production rather than allowing its continuation[3]. The current preliminary MoU only maintains the status quo until a final accord is negotiated over the next 60 days, with US officials insisting that no funds will be released until Iran fully complies with demands to dismantle its nuclear programme and remove all enriched material[3].

Traders must monitor the outcome of the 60-day negotiation window starting 18 June, specifically any announcement confirming whether the US will permit dilution of stockpiles on Iranian soil versus a total ban on enrichment[2]. A recent Reuters report notes that a draft deal includes a waiver for oil sanctions and a temporary allowance to dilute highly enriched uranium, yet the final text remains subject to intense US scrutiny regarding the moratorium on future enrichment activities[2]. The settlement of this market hinges entirely on whether the final agreement includes limitations or a complete prohibition, as the market definition accepts agreements with caps or monitoring if the US accepts continued enrichment[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.