Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market resolves to a specific temperature range based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground, which captures sub-daily readings rather than the rounded Day High & Low summary figures. This distinction matters: intraday spikes during afternoon hours often exceed the published daily maximum by 1–2 degrees Celsius, particularly in urban heat-island zones like Chongqing's airport precinct.

Historical August data for Chongqing shows consistent peaks between 37 and 40 degrees Celsius, with 2013, 2017, and 2022 each recording 40+ degree days during mid-August. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August or scepticism about the market's resolution mechanics. Comparable weather markets on this platform have resolved accurately when Weather Underground data remained accessible; however, station outages or data delays during extreme heat events have occasionally triggered resolution disputes in other jurisdictions.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July could suppress temperatures by introducing cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over central China would drive sustained heat. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 August, which corresponds to 20:00 local time in Chongqing—well after the daily temperature peak occurs around 14:00–15:00 local time.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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