Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date deep within the city’s subtropical monsoon summer. Historical data confirms June daytime highs typically range from 32°C to 37°C, with extremes occasionally surpassing 38°C, while heavy downpours and high humidity characterise the period[1][3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely because the market range is set unrealistically low given the seasonal norm of 34–37°C highs[1][2]. Comparable cases from recent years show consistent heatwaves in late June, reinforcing that a 0% probability may reflect a mispricing rather than a genuine expectation of cold weather[6][10].

Traders should monitor immediate weather schedules, particularly announcements on typhoon activity or prolonged rain fronts that could temporarily suppress temperatures, though such events are less frequent in late June than in July[1]. A key catalyst is the release of updated Wunderground data for the Baiyun station, which serves as the official resolution source; any discrepancy between forecast models and actual readings could shift market sentiment rapidly[1]. Recent reports from Xinhua News Agency highlight that Guangzhou experienced its longest summer since 1961, indicating a trend toward extended heat that supports higher temperature readings in June[8]. For accessibility, German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach create a complex framework, yet the ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ threshold allows traders to participate without full identity verification, enhancing liquidity for this specific weather market while maintaining regulatory compliance[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.