Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specified range, though seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong during June–August 2026[1]. Historical data shows June highs typically range from 33.7°C to 34.6°C, with the year’s hottest day so far reaching 34.6°C and triggering a hail warning[5]. The warmest day historically in June occurs around 20 June, averaging 29.7°C, but 2026’s forecast suggests a hotter pattern overall[8].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather updates, especially extreme heat warnings that have recently pushed New Territories temperatures to 37°C[4]. The settlement depends entirely on the finalised “Daily Extract” data, which is only published after the date’s information is confirmed. Recent news from the Observatory confirms extreme heat warnings for Thursday and Friday, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures[4]. For regulatory accessibility, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach mean that platforms offering “no-KYC up to $1,500” allow broader participation in this weather market without strict identity checks, though compliance remains subject to local laws. This structure enables traders to access the market with minimal friction while staying within legal boundaries.

The market’s resolution hinges on the Observatory’s official “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once finalised in the Daily Extract, available at the Hong Kong Observatory’s climate portal. Until that data is published, the market cannot resolve, creating a dependency on timely official reporting. Seasonal forecasts and recent heat warnings suggest a high probability of temperatures exceeding typical June averages, yet the 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to miss the specific range entirely[1]. Traders must weigh these climatic indicators against the crowd’s scepticism, watching for any sudden shifts in official heat advisories or data publication delays.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.