Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station in New York City recorded a maximum temperature of 71°F, well below the seasonal average of 84.2°F and the historical record of 101°F[7]. This factual outcome aligns with the crowd-implied 0% probability for higher temperature ranges, as the day was notably cool despite a preceding heatwave that saw Central Park hit 102°F on 21 June[1]. Historical June data shows typical highs between 77°F and 99°F, with averages near 88°F, meaning the 71°F reading was an outlier on the lower end rather than the extreme heat some markets anticipated[9].

Traders should monitor upcoming National Weather Service climatological reports and any shifts in regional cold front activity, as these directly influence temperature resolution[2]. The recent heatwave that persisted until the weekend, with temperatures soaring above 100°F in the Northeast, has now been replaced by cooler air and scattered thunderstorms, a pattern that explains the current low temperature reading[1][2]. While no specific announcement for 26 June altered the forecast, the broader dependency on cold front timing remains critical for future temperature predictions in the region.

Regulatory accessibility for this market is shaped by German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, particularly regarding the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold that allows broader participation without identity verification. This specific provision means traders can access the market without undergoing full KYC processes, provided their exposure remains under the limit, enhancing liquidity while maintaining compliance with cross-border tax and regulatory frameworks. The factual resolution of 71°F confirms the market's accuracy, with no legal ambiguity affecting the settlement process.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.