Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest **recorded temperature** at San Francisco International Airport on 10 August 2026, with the settlement source prioritising Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table over any summary high/low box. In practical terms, that means the market turns on the single warmest observation logged at SFO during the full local-day window, not on a forecast, model output, or a rounded headline figure.

A 0% crowd-implied chance is best read against San Francisco’s generally mild August climate, where normal highs are in the low 70s Fahrenheit and even historical August records are modest by US standards, though occasional warm spikes do occur. Comparable August weather references put typical highs around 68–72°F, while the airport’s daily climate report for 10 August lists a normal maximum of 73°F and a record maximum of 87°F for that date, underscoring that very hot outcomes are uncommon but not impossible[7][11][17]. For market-readers in Germany, this is a prediction contract rather than a weather forecast, so the key legal axis is access and classification: German GlüStV questions arise if the venue is treated as gambling-facing in Germany; in the US, CFTC reach can matter where a venue resembles a derivatives product rather than pure gaming; and “no-KYC up to $1,500” usually means lighter onboarding for smaller positions, but not anonymous access, so the market may still be operationally usable while remaining subject to platform limits and jurisdictional screening.

For catalysts, the main watchpoints are the afternoon warming trend, marine-layer burn-off, and any late-day coastal moderation that caps the airport reading before the settlement window closes. Official and commercial forecasts for 10 August pointed to highs around 68°F to 71°F with mostly cloudy to partly sunny conditions, which is consistent with a low-volatility setup rather than a breakout heat event[1][3][11][12]. If later observations at SFO printed only in the high 60s or low 70s, the 0% pricing would be broadly validated; if a strong offshore component or unusual inland heat spillover pushed the airport station into the upper 70s, the market would become more contestable, but the resolution would still depend on the Weather Underground observation log rather than the forecast summaries[3][7][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Germany Legal has a different geo footprint.

Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Germany Legal?

Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.