Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco's peak temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at the airport weather station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution tied to the highest hourly reading rather than the summary high-low figure. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning trades reflect expectations for the full calendar day's thermal range.

Historical August temperatures at San Francisco International Airport cluster between 72 and 82 degrees Fahrenheit, with extremes rarely exceeding 85 degrees. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a technical misunderstanding of the resolution criteria or genuine confidence that the market's temperature bands exclude realistic outcomes for that date. Comparable August markets on this venue have typically seen non-trivial probability mass across the 70–80 degree range, reflecting genuine uncertainty in coastal Bay Area microclimates where marine layer influence can suppress daytime highs.

Regulatory accessibility differs markedly by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets on this platform may require formal licensing depending on contract classification; traders in Germany should verify their broker's authorisation status. US CFTC oversight applies to binary derivatives, though no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure per calendar year permits retail participation without identity verification for smaller positions. UK Financial Conduct Authority rules similarly permit certain prediction market activity without full KYC for minor stakes. Traders should confirm their local regulatory framework before entering positions, as temperature derivatives fall into grey zones across multiple jurisdictions.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

What happens during a tax audit?

You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Germany Legal exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Germany Legal would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.