Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 25 June 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by Wunderground data. Historical patterns show Seoul’s late June temperatures typically range between 26°C and 30°C, often feeling hotter due to humidity exceeding 80%, while early June is milder. Recent forecasts for 25 June 2026 indicate mostly cloudy conditions with highs around 26°C, aligning with the crowd-implied 0% probability for extreme heat outcomes, as monsoon season usually suppresses peak temperatures in this window[1][2][6].

Traders should monitor daily weather announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time updates on Wunderground, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could alter temperature readings. A recent KBS report from 25 June 2026 noted no extreme heat with midday highs at 27°C and heavy afternoon showers, reinforcing the likelihood of moderate temperatures rather than extremes[8]. Regulatory accessibility hinges on German GlüStV compliance and US CFTC reach; the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows traders to participate without identity verification, provided the market remains under regulatory caps, enhancing accessibility for this specific weather-linked prediction without triggering stricter compliance obligations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.