Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date falling just as South Korea’s monsoon season typically begins. Historical data for Seoul in June shows average highs between 19°C and 28°C, with the month’s peak maximum reaching 34.0°C on 19 June 2026, yet late June often brings cooler, rainier conditions that suppress extreme heat[1][7]. Given that 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect no temperature spike into the highest range, comparable cases from recent years indicate that late-June heatwaves in the region are rare, with humidity and rainfall usually dominating the weather pattern[1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, as these directly influence maximum temperature readings[4]. A recent report from Chosun highlights that South Korea experienced its hottest spring and May ever in 2026, driven by elevated sea surface temperatures, which could theoretically extend heat into early summer, though late June remains climatologically prone to cooling[10]. The key dependency is whether the monsoon front delays or accelerates; a delayed onset might allow a brief heat spike, but current trends suggest rain will limit temperatures[1][2].

Regulatory accessibility for this market is shaped by German GlüStV provisions, which classify certain prediction activities under gambling law, and US CFTC reach, which may treat them as derivatives if structured with leverage. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold means retail participants can access this market without identity verification for smaller stakes, enhancing liquidity while staying within compliance boundaries for both jurisdictions. This structure allows broad participation without triggering full regulatory scrutiny, provided the market remains under the specified exposure limits.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.