Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data for June at this station shows daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F, with the month’s hottest average day occurring on 30 June at 29.7°C [1][5]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range is 0% YES, traders should interpret this as a market betting against an extreme outlier, since June 27 has not historically produced temperatures near the upper 92°F threshold [1].

Traders must monitor upcoming meteorological announcements, particularly any severe heatwave forecasts from China’s National Meteorological Centre or regional humidity spikes that could push temperatures beyond the seasonal norm [3]. A recent weather update from AccuWeather indicates June 2026 highs in Shanghai may reach 86°F (30°C), suggesting the market’s 0% probability could be premature if a sudden heat surge occurs [3]. Beyond weather, regulatory catalysts include the German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) implications for prediction markets operating in Germany, the US CFTC’s reach over offshore derivatives, and the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold, which allows retail participants to access this market without identity verification, enhancing liquidity but raising compliance risks [1]. These factors collectively shape the market’s accessibility and settlement integrity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.